One of the teams that fleeced the Panthers, theĀ Chicago Bears, areĀ on another end of the spectrum, or are at least establishing themselves in that way. And they have, by far, the most interesting question of asset management coming this offseason.
With a Panthers loss this past weekend, the Bears wrapped up the No. 1 pick via the Young trade from a year ago. Through the past few months, we have viewed the potential scenarios as a kind of binary set of outcomes. Either:
ā¢ The Bears trade the No. 1 pick for a massive haul and invest long-term in Justin Fields, who is an ascending player.
ā¢ The Bears trade Fields, who, because he is an ascending player, could net the team a third first-round draft pick in 2023 (in addition to the Bearsā own pick and Carolinaās) to help them build for the rookie quarterback.
But what if I were to venture a third option? And before you say noābefore you accuse me of being all Panthers-likeāletās at least flesh the argument out. What if the Bears embrace an honest and open process, keep Justin Fields and sit whomever they like best at No. 1 for at least the final year of Fieldsās rookie contract, trading him on his fifth-year option salary for less than he might fetch in a trade this coming offseason?
Your standard, block-and-tackle GM analysis is going to be:Ā Draft No. 1 overall, give yourself a longer runway on a rookie contract, get rid of Fields, take the compensation while heās hot.
The standard response by a player in the Bearsā locker room resulting from that outcome is going to be:Ā Why the hell did they trade for a bunch of veterans if theyāre going to stick a kid back there next year? Get us more help.
The latter is what makes this matter delicate. The Bears have rapidly improved the roster, and while that has come via sound drafting, it has also come through a targeted binge in free agency and at the trade deadline. The Bears could win eight games this year, and it would stand to reason that they could win more next year, especially if they get the easier slice of the NFC Northās nonconference schedule. Chicagoās best players are relatively young, but I think we can all agree that there is a window now, as well as a potential window in the near future that coincides with the further development of their past two draft classes. The āfutureā of the Bears is just less certain. We can be far more certain that Moore and Montez Sweat will be good in 2024.
In the scenario where the Bears trade the No. 1 pick and invest in Fields, there is also a fantasy at play. As good as the Bears have been at drafting under Ryan Poles, I can promise you that no general manager is infallible. Itās mostly a crapshoot for everyone, withĀ half of all first-round picks signing second contracts elsewhereĀ and only 31% of first-round picks signing second contracts with their original club. If Chicago nets three total first-round picks for the No. 1 pick, we can almost guarantee that one of those players is not going to be that good (more likely, two of them wonāt be that good). Data suggests that one of those players will be on the roster five years from now. Iām not saying this is a reason to ignore draft capital, as itās still the most effective way to build an affordable roster core, but I am saying that we cannot let our obsession with young talent cloud what could be a good opportunity elsewhere.
And in my scenario, we also have to be dreamers. As Iāve outlined it, that means letting Fields know that the Bears are drafting a quarterback but holding on to Fields for at least the next season. While the best case could play outāFields accepts his disposition, understands that playing incredibly well this year is his best avenue to a top-of-market contract extension, regardless ofĀ where , while the rookie gets invaluable experience and the chance to learn the rhythms of a locker room and the NFL game how Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love did, and the veterans already on the team feel as though theyāre being put in the absolute best position to cash postseason checksāweāre talking about a major market football team and all of the complications that come with it. If the messaging is off, if Fields struggles, there is also the opportunity for the Bears to foist a rookie onto the field during his first season, anyway. Doing so would torpedo Fieldsās trade value (like when Carson Wentz was benched for rookie Jalen Hurts, though Wentz still fetched a first-round pick in a trade to Indianapolis) and could create factions in the locker room. Is Fields of the Aaron Rodgers temperament, where a rookie would resemble a persistent, nagging threat that manifests itself in passive aggression? Or, is Fields business minded? Could he digest the scenario, understanding that, if he continues to progress, heād likely have multiple suitors and a long-term extension in free agency of 2025? (With Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence both slated to re-up, itās not a bad year to get paid.)
I think the Packers and Chiefs are thankful for enduring the awkwardness. Jordan Love is a game away from lifting the Packers to the playoffs in his first season as a starter. And while his run has not been perfect, he threw for 30 touchdowns and 11 picks this season, in addition to four rushing touchdowns. If Love throws or runs for one more touchdown in the season finale, heāll tie the number of points scored by Cam Newton during Newtonās then historic 2011 rookie season. One more passing touchdown for Love would tie Justin Herbertās rookie record for most touchdown passes in a rookie season. Patrick Mahomes is ā¦ Patrick Mahomes. We have been reminded, year after year, that so many rookie quarterbacks are prone to being lost in the shuffle, only to reemerge, like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield or Ryan Tannehill, as capable players in another system. Why not buy yourself some of that time?
Is chasing this potential progression, which would provide far more security at the most critical position in professional sports and just as long of a window with an affordable QB rookie contract, a more enticing option than simply riding with a young quarterback or stockpiling more draft capital?
Letās put it this way: If the Bears are committed to taking a QB1 in this yearās draft, then also keeping Fields seems like a simpler decision than people are treating it as. The chance of creating a long-term, stable bridge of quarterback play and multiple playoff appearances starting right away is far more valuable than what Fields would net in a trade this year. We could be talking about netting a second-round pick, versus multiple trips to the playoffs.
If the Bears are committed to Fields wholly and unquestionably, and dislike all of the passers in this yearās draft, then the question is moot.
But, if the Bears are starting to feel the pressure of the decision that everyone will judge them on forever, if they are wondering whether they will go down as theĀ Dallas CowboysĀ postāHerschel Walker or the 2023 Carolina Panthers, they should not discount the possibility of having some cake and eating it, too.
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