Man City
The defending champions once again, Man City, were the clear favourites before the campaign started, as they always are. However, signs suggest they face a much harder time retaining their title this time around. Having won nine and lost two of their opening 11 games, Man City dropped points in a tricky period with draws against Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham and then suffered a defeat to Aston Villa.
| TEAM | OPTA PROBABILITY | TITLE ODDS |
| Man City | 47.82% | 11/10 |
| Liverpool | 39.47% | 2/1 |
| Arsenal | 12.60% | 3/1 |
| Aston Villa | 0.08% | 100/1 |
| Tottenham | 0.03% | 100/1 |
| Man Utd | 0% | 500/1 |
| Newcastle | 0% | 1000/1 |
City got on a roll more recently, winning nine and drawing two of their last 11 Premier League matches. They still trail Liverpool by a point, setting up a crucial title matchup in a few weeks.
PREMIER LEAGUE OPTA PROBABILITY RATINGS 2023/24
| # | TEAM | TITLE % | UCL % | UEL % | RELEGATION % | CURRENT # |
| 1. | Man City | 51.79% | 99.98% | 0.02% | 0% | 2. |
| 2. | Liverpool | 36.17% | 99.98% | 0.02% | 0% | 1. |
| 3. | Arsenal | 11.95% | 99.62% | 0.36% | 0% | 3. |
| 4. | Aston Villa | 0.09% | 64.17% | 27.09% | 0% | 4. |
| 5. | Tottenham | 0% | 30.97% | 46.81% | 0% | 5. |
| 6. | Man Utd | 0% | 4.03% | 16.32% | 0% | 6. |
| 7. | Brighton | 0% | 0.34% | 2.96% | 0% | 7. |
| 8. | Newcastle | 0% | 0.57% | 3.99% | 0% | 8. |
| 9. | West Ham | 0% | 0.11% | 0.44% | 0% | 9. |
| 10. | Chelsea | 0% | 0.16% | 1.52% | 0% | 10. |
| 11. | Wolves | 0% | 0.07% | 0.45% | 0% | 11. |
| 12. | Fulham | 0% | 0% | 0.01% | 0.15% | 12. |
| 13. | Crystal Palace | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.85% | 13. |
| 14. | Bournemouth | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.37% | 14. |
| 15. | Brentford | 0% | 0% | 0.01% | 1.79% | 15. |
| 16. | Nottingham Forest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.38% | 16. |
| 17. | Everton | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.28% | 17. |
| 18. | Luton | 0% | 0% | 0% | 63.85% | 18. |
| 19. | Burnley | 0% | 0% | 0% | 98.39% | 19. |
| 20 | Sheff Utd | 0% | 0% | 0% | 98.94% | 20. |
Liverpool
Liverpool enters the final third of the season as the Premier League leaders, and they’ll be hoping to keep hold of their spot in the perfect send-off for Jurgen Klopp. The title race is in Liverpool’s hands as they sit one point clear of Man City, knowing they can draw against the defending champions and win all of their remaining games. There have been a couple of shaky moments against Arsenal — drawing 1-1 at home and losing 3-1 away — but Liverpool have now won their last four, including a last-minute win over Nottingham Forest last time out.
Arsenal
The near men of the 2022/23 season, for some time, it looked as though Arsenal would be ending their long wait for the Premier League trophy — a first since the Invincibles season of 2003/04. But in the end, Mikel Arteta’s men had to settle for second. While some predicted last season was a fluke, Arsenal are showing they are here to stay. The Gunners have put a recent wobble behind them to win six games in a row, including eye-catching 6-0 and 5-0 wins away from home at West Ham and Burnley, respectively, and a 4-1 victory over Newcastle. Arsenal are now just two points behind Liverpool.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery is doing a fantastic job at Aston Villa, so seeing them in the title conversation shouldn’t be too surprising. However, any title bid has taken a hit recently. The Villans are now eight points behind leaders Liverpool and will focus on securing a top-four finish — which will have been their main aim anyway.
Tottenham
Tottenham endured a miserable 2022/23 despite Harry Kane threatening Erling Haaland for the Golden Boot. Spurs finished eighth, an eye-watering 29 points behind champions Man City and embattled head coach Antonio Conte left before the campaign was done. In the summer, Ange Postecoglou was installed, and there was some initial scepticism about how the former Celtic boss would do. Well, the Australian made a great start to life in the dugout, but that was counterbalanced by a drop-off, with Tottenham taking just one point from a run of five games despite scoring first in each match. Although there was a good run after, Tottenham are too far off now, having to fight to get into the top four.
Man Utd
Manchester United may have finished in the top four last season and even counted in the title race at times, but there were far too many down moments for it to be serious. Although there was a trophy, it was a tough first season for Erik ten Hag, and the hope was that his second campaign would be better. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case so far.
The Red Devils are sixth with 13 wins from their opening 24 games, with 11 of their victories coming by a single-goal margin. But there have also been ten defeats, including losses to Tottenham, Arsenal, Man City and, most recently, Fulham. They’re a whopping 16 points off the top.
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