The Vikings, looking to rebound from two straight losses, return from the bye in the thick of a heated playoff race in the NFC. Minnesota’s bitter rival, the Green Bay Packers, are also in that race and the two teams occupy very different ends of the luck spectrum this season.
Touched by the football gods in 2022, Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings have so far been hounded by football demons this season, with a league-high 18.3%of their drives ending in a turnover. That high of a clip hasn’t been seen since Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions for the Bucs in 2019, resulting in Tampa Bay’s 20.2% turnover rate.
Meanwhile, across the border in Green Bay, the Packers have a turnover rate of 9.4%, good for 11th lowest in the NFL.
Diving further into the numbers and analytics the Vikings have been the unluckiest team through 13 weeks, while the Packers have been the luckiest, according to NFL NextGen Stats. Both teams are on pace to set three-year highs in their respective categories.
In the chart below, you can see that the Vikings’ opponents don’t drop interceptions or passes, they make hard field goals and they recover most of the fumbles. Green Bay’s opponents, meanwhile, drop a ton of passes, miss field goals and fail to recover the ball when the Packers fumble.
Dropped Interception (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops an interception, you get lucky. We assume that the intercepting team keeps possession at the spot of the drop. (Vikings are 6th unluckiest)
Dropped Pass (dropped by opponent): When an opponent drops a pass, you get lucky. We assume the offense would gain yards after catch using the Next Gen Stats Expected YAC model. (Vikings are unluckiest team)
Field Goals and Extra Points (attempted by opponent): When an opponent misses a kick, you get lucky, and when your opponent makes a kick, you get unlucky. Field goal make probabilities are based on the Next Gen Stats Field Goal Probability model. (Vikings are 4th unluckiest)
Fumble Recoveries (by either team): When a team recovers a fumble, there’s a chance the luck of the bounce was involved. Fumble recovery probabilities are based on observed recovery percentages by when the fumble occurred (i.e., after a catch, during a rush, fumbled snap, muffed punt). (Vikings are unluckiest team)
The Vikings have lost 14 of 23 fumbles while the Packers have lost just two of 15 fumbles. While opponents are completing an eye-watering 70% of passes against the Minnesota defense, QBs are slightly less accurate against Green Bay, completing 64.4% of passes.
Despite three seasons worth of bad luck the Vikings are sixth in the NFC with the ability to control their own destiny over the final five weeks of the season.
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