The Atlanta Hawks are looking to strike it rich tonight in the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery. With the 10th-worst record in the league in 2023-24, the Hawks earned exactly 3% odds at the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. In addition, they will have just under 14% odds (a roughly 1-in-7 chance) at taking home a top-4 pick in the draft.
For an extended explanation of the machinations of the NBA Draft Lottery, please check out this piece I wrote about the nerdy details of it all.
General manager Landry Fields will attend the draft lottery proceedings in New York (hopefully) as the lucky talisman representative the Hawks need this evening. On that note, let’s take a stroll down memory lane at the Hawks’ history in the NBA Lottery — a history that will span 40 years as of today.
(warning: some of the resulting draft picks may not be suitable for squeamish eyes)
Equal Odds Lottery Era
1985: The Hawks and the other six teams in the lottery had an equal 1-in-7 chance at the top pick — and for that matter at any of the seven available draft slots. Atlanta finished fifth and grabbed Jon Koncak, a reserve center best known in infamy for a rather sizeable contract he would sign four short years later.
Steepened Odds/Three Lottery Draw Era
1990: The Hawks just missed the postseason in the 1989-90 season with a 41-41 record and thus had long odds at jumping into the top-3 (just over 5% in this format). They could not cash in on these odds and landed at the 11th draft slot. On draft night, the Hawks swapped future All-Star wing Tyrone Hill for point guard Rumeal Robinson, who would only spend two seasons in Atlanta.
1992: Atlanta again narrowly missing the postseason, and couldn’t manage to move up with the 10th-best odds in the lottery. Their consolation prize was power forward Adam Keefe, another two-year player for the Hawks.
2000: A 28-54 record in the previous season netted them the fifth-best odds at the top pick this draft. In hindsight, the one reprieve from the lack of lottery luck here is that the class of 2000 would go down as arguably the shallowest draft in history. DerMarr Johnson was the pick at six, but the swingman suffered a serious car crash two years later that ultimately cut his NBA career far too short.
2001: For the first time in franchise history, the Hawks were touched by Lady Luck. With a roughly 30% shot at finishing in the top-3 (equaling the odds from the previous year), Atlanta moved up to third. Hall of Famer Pau Gasol went here, and he was promptly traded to the Vancouver Grizzlies for scoring-minded forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Atlanta-area native and current President of the NBA G League. Might want a do-over on that one.
2004: In this iteration, the Hawks went from the sixth-best odds to the most likely spot: sixth in draft order. Josh Childress and his afro soon made Atlanta his home for four years before making Greece him home four years later.
2005: For the second time, the Hawks get a tiny bit of lottery fortune. Coming in with the worst record in the league (13-69), they couldn’t fall past fourth in the draft. With about a 47% chance at landing in the top-2, they grabbed the second overall pick. The organization, however, passed up a certain Wake Forest point guard prospect for Marvin Williams, who still carved out a nice career. But to this day, Hawks fans have only been left to wonder ‘what if’.
2006: The recent stretch of luck reversed itself in 2006. Atlanta fell from the fourth-best odds down to the fifth draft slot. It’s never good when you move on from a top-5 draft pick just a season and a half after selecting him, but that was the fate that befell Shelden Williams.
2007: The Hawks again landed in the top-3, this time with the fourth-best odds (~38% to finish at least third). Franchise pillar and future four-time All-Star Al Horford was brought to the A with their own pick, starting a streak of 10-straight years that the Hawks made the playoffs — logically pushing them outside of the lottery with their own first-round pick.
Prior to the previous season, Atlanta signed and traded Al Harrington, alongside John Edwards, to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for a first-round pick (that I believe was unprotected). The Pacers finished with the 11th-worst record in the league, but were unable to move up in the lottery. The Hawks then selected Acie Law IV with the resulting 11th overall pick.
2018: A full teardown in the post-Horford era led to the Hawks ending with the fifth-worst record in 2017-18. This lottery and draft defined the next era, however, with the Hawks landing the third-overall pick, moving the fifth-pick on draft night and picking up a future top-5 protected first in the deal. All that rigamarole equaled three-time All-Star Trae Young and, eventually, Cam Reddish.
Flattened Odds/Four Lottery Draw Era
2019: Atlanta came into the draft lottery with their own pick with the sixth-best odds and the aforementioned top-5 protected pick tied for the seventh-best odds. They left with picks no. 8 and no. 10. Ouch. De’Andre Hunter was acquired fourth overall via draft night trade using a separate non-lottery first-round pick.
2020: The most recent meaningful lottery night for the Hawks saw the Hawks slip from the fourth-best odds to sixth overall. This pick brought in current backup center Onyeka Okongwu.
Let us hope that 2024 treats Hawks fans to a much friendly outcome than the many lotteries before it.
Leave a Reply