We remain in the shots on goal market in the NHL to continue finding us some winning prop plays. For tonight, we’re going under the hood on how projected shot volume impacts player’s hit rates. What comes of it is four names all looking like solid bets to hit their numbers.
Jack Hughes & Jesper Bratt
New Jersey looks to be in a fantastic spot for shots tonight, as the Boston Bruins are allowing 38.2 shots per game on the road over the past month. That coincides nicely with the Devils averaging 37.6 shots per game as a team on home ice in the same span, so this feels like the right time to go aggressive in this one.
The two most likely beneficiaries in my eyes are Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
Hughes has 5+ shots on goal in eight of his last nine, and has been even better at home. Over the last five games in New Jersey, Hughes is averaging 7.4 SOG/game on 12.0 attempts/game, logging 6+ shots each time. Truly absurd numbers.
The past two times the Bruins have visited the Devils, Hughes has five and six SOG.
Then there’s Bratt. He has 3+ shots in four of five overall and four of five at home. Based on recent volume both overall, at home and against Boston, I’m comfortable projecting out 6+ attempts for the Devils wing.
When he finds that attempt volume, he crushes his line, going over 2.5 shots at an 81% rate over the last three seasons, averaging 4.1 SOG/game. He’s tallied six, four and five shots in his past three meetings with Boston.
Betting:
- 1u: Jack Hughes over 4.5 SOG (+105 DK)
- 1u: Jesper Bratt over 2.5 SOG (-120 DK)
- .3u: Hughes 6+, Bratt 4+ shots (+630 FD)
Nathan MacKinnon & Mikko Rantanen
Speaking of volume, both Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are operating with the type of shot attempts I like to see. I’m expecting about 30-32 shots on goal from Colorado tonight against Buffalo, and these two should be heavily involved in that number.
MacKinnon has 8+ attempts in seven straight games and has 10+ attempts in two straight against the Sabres. When MacKinnon shoots the puck eight or more times, he has finished with 4+ SOG in 91% of games over the last few seasons and has finished with 5+ at an 83% clip. He has five, eight and four in his last three with Buffalo.
Rantanen has popped the past two games, tallying a mammoth 28 attempts, both on home ice. He has 23 attempts and 13 SOG in his past two meetings with the Sabres, so I’m thinking we can atleast count him as a safe bet to find 6+ attempts. He’s recorded three or more shots in 87% of such games, and has gone for 4+ at a 68% rate.
Betting:
- 1u: MacKinnon 4+ shots, Rantanen 3+ shots (-111 FD)
- .5u: MacKinnon 5+, Rantanen 4+ (+271 ESPN)
Good luck tonight!
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