After a two-week build-up, Super Bowl LVIII is nearly here.Per FanDuel, the San Francisco 49ers are a slight favorite as they seek their first Lombardi Trophy since the 1994 season. With a win, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will earn their third Super Bowl title in five seasons and cement themselves as the NFL’s next dynasty.
Here’s what to watch for when the teams meet on Sunday night at 6:30 ET.
WHEN CHIEFS ARE ON OFFENSE
How will the 49ers pressure quarterback Patrick Mahomes?
San Francisco must pressure Mahomes to have a chance. The problem for the Niners is how they go about turning up the heat on the two-time MVP. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks blitzes at the third-lowest rate in the league (18 percent), a strategy that is actually San Francisco’s best shot at limiting Kansas City’s offense. However, it isn’t a guarantee.
Mahomes has gaudy numbers in games when he’s blitzed on more than one-third of his dropbacks, but he also diced up defenses this season when he wasn’t blitzed. Mahomes was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded quarterback on those dropbacks, throwing for 3,559 yards and gaining a league-high 199 first downs.
Unless the Niners’ front four, including edge-rushers Nick Bosa, Chase Young and defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Javon Kinlaw, consistently dictates what Mahomes does on his dropbacks, the two-time Super Bowl winner will likely lead the Chiefs to victory.
Tight end Travis Kelce vs. linebacker Fred Warner
Arguably the game’s best individual matchup is Kelce, the league’s best tight end, versus Warner, its best linebacker. The battle will be especially fascinating to watch between the hashes.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Kelce led tight ends with 562 receiving yards in the middle third of the field, while Warner’s presence propelled San Francisco to become the best at defending that area of the field.
Running back Isiah Pacheco on the perimeter
In the playoffs, the Packers and Lions succeeded on runs outside the tackles against the 49ers, something Kansas City’s second-year back should be able to replicate. Pacheco gained 387 yards on 64 perimeter runs this season.
Per NFL.com, Pacheco needs 57 yards to become the fifth player in league history to gain 600 scrimmage yards in the postseason during his first two years.
Kansas City’s weakest link… wide receivers
No position group enters the Super Bowl with more at stake than Chiefs wideouts after they led the league in drops (44) and drop rate (6.9 percent) this season. Rookie Rashee Rice has stepped up following a rough start; he leads the team with eight drops but only has one — in sub-freezing temperatures against the Dolphins in the wild-card round — in his past seven games.
Veteran Marques Valdez-Scantling hauled in the clinching 32-yarder in the AFC Championship Game, quelling some concern about the unit. Kansas City will need a few more big catches from its wide receivers to win another Super Bowl.
WHEN 49ERS ARE ON OFFENSE
Brock Purdy vs. the blitz
Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Steve Spagnuolo likes to dial up the blitz, but he may need to re-think that strategy against Purdy.
Getting pressure could be a challenge for Kansas City with edge Charles Omenihu (torn ACL) out for the game. As NFL Next Gen Stats notes, the Chiefs have been far less productive at pressuring quarterbacks — despite blitzing more — without Omenihu in the lineup.
The Chiefs must rely on second-year edge George Karlaftis III and first-team All-Pro Chris Jones to offset the loss. Kansas City had the second-highest pressure rate (27.8 percent) during the regular season. Detroit ranked first, and in the NFC title game against the Lions, Purdy was 6-of-11 for 88 yards and an interception when pressured.
“21” personnel
Look for Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan to use “21” personnel — two running backs, one tight end — to exploit a potential mismatch. Christian McCaffrey, who was named Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year on Thursday, is San Francisco’s best playmaker. This season, he led the league in yards before and after contact. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs allowed the third-most yards after contact this season.
FTN Fantasy revealed that Kansas City was significantly worse in expected points added when facing “21” personnel than other formations. (San Francisco has used that grouping 37 percent of the time.)
Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk
While the Chiefs led the league in drops, at the other end of the spectrum are San Francisco’s wide receivers, who had the league’s fewest drops (nine). Samuel and Aiyuk lead the charge but have a tough matchup against Kansas City corners L’Jarius Sneed and Charvarius Ward.
The Niners had an average depth of target of 7.8 yards this season, but they could be forced to throw shorter. NFL Next Gen Stats data shows Sneed and Ward are among the best defenders on throws that travel 10 or more yards.
Tight end George Kittle
“He’s the best tight end in the league.”
That’s what Kelce said about Kittle last week, heaping enormous praise on San Francisco’s first-team All-Pro tight end.
This season, Kittle had 65 receptions for 1,020 yards, his first 1,000-yard season since 2019, lending credence to Kelce’s claim. However, Kansas City ranked ninth in receiving yards allowed to tight ends this season (759), giving the Chiefs a chance to prove Kelce wrong.
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