The Miami Dolphins’ humbling loss at Baltimore on Sunday prevented them from clinching the AFC East title, making their Week 18 finale against the Buffalo Bills a winner-take-all battle.While that’s clear cut, what’s also become clearer is the potential first-round opponents for the Dolphins depending on their outcome against Buffalo.
Because ties are so rare, the following range of possibilities all are done with the assumption there will be no tie games in Week 18.
DOLPHINS POTENTIAL OPPONENTS IF THEY WIN THE AFC EAST
This one is simple: If the Dolphins defeat Buffalo, the win the AFC East and will be the No. 2 seed in the AFC behind the top-seeded Ravens.
That means the Dolphins would face in the first round the No. 7 seed, and at this point that looks like either a repeat of the Bills coming to Hard Rock Stadium or a trip from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And it’s as simple as the result of the Pittsburgh at Baltimore game.
If the Dolphins win next Sunday and Pittsburgh defeats the Ravens, the first-round playoff game at Hard Rock Stadium will be Pittsburgh at Miami.
If the Dolphins win next Sunday and Pittsburgh loses against the Ravens, the first-round playoff game will be Buffalo at Miami.
A loss for Buffalo next Sunday would leave the Bills with a 10-7 record but a 6-6 conference record, which would be the worst among any team that could finish 10-7.
Jacksonville, Houston and Indianapolis currently are tied atop the AFC South with 9-7 records, and Houston and Indy are facing each other next week.
If Jacksonville wins, the Jaguars take the AFC South title and the winner of Houston at Indy would get the No. 6 seed ahead of Buffalo at 10-7 because of a better conference record. But the Steelers could then land the No. 7 seed ahead of the Bills with a victory at Baltimore — also because of a better conference record than Buffalo.
If Tennessee upsets Jacksonville, then the winner of the Houston-Indy game takes the AFC South, Buffalo is in the playoffs regardless and the Steelers could land the final playoff spot with a victory at Baltimore.
But any scenario where Pittsburgh does not win would leave Buffalo as the No. 7 seed.
DOLPHINS POTENTIAL OPPONENTS IF THEY DO NOT WIN THE AFC EAST
This one is even simpler: If the Dolphins lose against Buffalo, they will finish with an 11-6 record and get the No. 6 seed regardless of what the Cleveland Browns do at Cincinnati in Week 18 because the Browns already have 11 wins and are assured of finishing with a better conference record than Miami.
The Dolphins’ 11 wins also ensures they can be no lower than the sixth seed.
As the No. 6 seed, the Dolphins would go on the road against the No. 3 seed and the only possibilities are the winner of the AFC West or the AFC South, and it’s looking very much like that first-round opponent would be the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Dolphins cannot face the Buffalo Bills if they lose next Sunday because Buffalo then would land the No. 2 seed and play at home against the No. 7 seed.
Kansas City currently has a one-game lead over the three AFC South teams, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Jacksonville, hold the conference record tiebreaker over Houston, and currently has the lead over Indianapolis in terms of strength of wins mark.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This is how we can sum it up:
— If the Dolphins defeat Buffalo, they will land the No. 2 seed and play their first-round game against Pittsburgh or Buffalo.
— If the Dolphins lost against the Buffalo, they will finish with the No. 6 seed and likely will play first-round game at Kansas City.
Leave a Reply