Guardians’ Starting Rotation Suffers Major Blow 9 Games Into Season

Just two starts into 2024 and the season is over for Cleveland Guardians’ ace Shane Bieber. On April 6, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell reported that Bieber will have season-ending elbow surgery after experiencing pain during both his Opening Day start and subsequent outing on April 2, with NY Post’s Jon Heyman confirming it will be Tommy John surgery.

Despite his injury, Bieber was unshakeable through his two starts this season, recording a perfect 0.00 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 12 innings on the mound. The 28-year-old finished 2023 with a 3.80 ERA in just 21 starts, with elbow inflammation keeping him sidelined from July to September. Bell confirmed that Bieber’s current elbow injury is to the same ligament that was a problem for him last season.

No stranger to injury, Bieber also missed over three months of the 2021 season with a subscapularis strain.

In a Zoom call of April 6, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti spoke about losing Bieber for 2024, saying the pitcher coped through his first two starts of the season with “sheer toughness and grit,” per Tom Withers of the Associated Press.

“I think, first and foremost, we feel for Shane,” Antonetti said. “Shane has done everything possible in his power to try to get back and pitch and help our team, and those efforts extended back to last year and the work he put into the rehab process. He really put in a lot of work this winter and throughout spring training, and we all felt like he was on a good path to stay healthy and contribute for the balance of the season.”

Uncertainty in Guardians’ Starting Rotation After Losing Bieber

Over the last few seasons, the Guardians’ starting rotation has been a high point of an otherwise shaky roster, though injuries have been an ongoing problem.

Last year’s rookies Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen both showed a huge amount of promise — particularly Bibee, who finished runner-up in 2023’s AL Rookie of the Year balloting — but Bieber and Triston McKenzie both spent time on the IL, and even now, starter Gavin Williams is out with an elbow injury.

Without Bieber for the rest of 2024 and until Williams returns from the IL, the Guardians rotation will feature Bibee, Allen, McKenzie, and Carlos Carrasco, who signed a minor-league deal with Cleveland on February 1.

Tyler Beede, who also signed a minor-league deal with the Guardians before Opening Day, is likely to step into the fifth rotation slot, though he’s only thrown out of the bullpen so far this season.

Injury Likely Ends Trade Speculation With Bieber Entering Free Agency After 2024

On January 11, Bieber agreed to a one-year, $13.125 million contract with the Guardians, avoiding arbitration in his final year of club control. The two-time All-Star is due to enter free agency for the first time at the end of the 2024 season.

Bieber has been surrounded by trade rumors for more than two seasons, most recently being named by Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer as one of the 10 best MLB trade chips for 2024.

During the offseason, Bieber was linked to the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and a slew of other teams looking to bolster their starting rotations. And since the famously frugal Guardians are unlikely to secure the ace on a long-term deal after 2024, Rymer listed the Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, and Houston Astros as potential midseason trade destinations.

If an extension between Bieber and the Guardians doesn’t come together, the AL Cy Young Award winner will be entering the open market having missed significant time in 2021, 2023, and 2024. Considering the recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery is often more than a year, he may also have to start 2025 on the IL.

Despite being an extremely effective pitcher when healthy, his injury woes may mean Bieber is looking at a one-to-two-year deal out of free agency at the end of 2024. Rather than rushing his recovery, a short-term deal will allow Bieber to come back from injury, prove himself, and reset his value in free agency after the 2025 or 2026 season.

Could this mean an extension from the Guardians is more likely? Only time will tell, but it’s clear any plans the team had to maximize his value on the trade market this season are finished.