Evaluating No. 1 pick Caleb Williams’ fit with the Chicago Bears

We take a look at what Chicago plans to surround the No. 1 pick with in 2024.

Exceptions are made when evaluating No. 1 draft picks. Exceptions are made when evaluating quarterbacks in general. And exceptions are certainly made when it comes to evaluating 2024 No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams. The 2022 Heisman Trophy graded out as exceptional in the eyes of the Chicago Bears. Now Williams looks to take the quarterback position where no signal caller since Sid Luckman has taken it in the Windy City: an elite tier.

Williams is the ninth Trojan quarterback drafted since 2003, including five in the first round. He was the first Trojan selected by the Bears since defensive back Rashard Cook was selected in the sixth round in 1999. (Cook never played in a game for the Bears. Instead, he played in 47 games over four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles.)

The Bears, of course, are not a good team. They have not been to the playoffs since 2020. They’ve won one division championship in the last 13 seasons. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2010 and have only won three in Williams’ lifetime. It’s the type of misery that explains how teams end up with high draft picks. However, it should be noted this particular high draft pick came via trade with the Carolina Panthers, so the Bears weren’t the worst team in the league last year as would be expected.

The Bears are betting Williams’ prodigious talent raises the organization along with the new faces Chicago brought into the fold. Before we get to the new personnel, let’s break down a Chicago team that did improve from 3-14 in 2022 to 7-10 in 2023.

The Bears finished 18th in the league with 360 points scored. Chicago averaged 5.0 yards per play, 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 5.5 yards per passing attempt. Let’s focus on the middle stat because it ranked No. 6 in the league. That’s right, we’ve actually got some good news off the bat for Caleb. He’s arriving on a team that can run the ball. The Bears’ 137 first-down rushes were fifth-best in the league last season.

Of course, Caleb is going to be on the hook for wins and losses more than his teammates. Consequently, we have to look at the Bears defensively as well. Chicago allowed 379 points last season. They ranked No. 20 in the 32-team league. Not great, but honestly not so far from mediocrity that Williams will have to put up 40 to win consistently. In terms of per play average, Chicago was middle of the road in yards per play and passing yards per attempt. They were, however, a strong run defense. The Bears allowed just 3.8 yards per opponent rush in 2023. If there’s only one thing a defense can do, it’s not the worst thing to be able to stop the run. Again, this situation is not as bad as it could have been for Williams.

Chicago’s leading rusher was quarterback Justin Fields (657 yards). The team’s leading running back rusher was Khalil Herbert (611 yards).  Chicago’s leading receiver was DJ Moore (acquired along with the draft pick that would become Williams in the trade with the Panthers last year). Moore caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He had 64 first-down catches. Chicago also got 73 receptions (on 90 targets) from former Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet. In a related story, the Bears drafted Washington’s Rome Odunze with the No. 9 overall pick. Moore and Odunze are a nice start for Williams. It’s far from a stocked cupboard, but Williams should have places to go with the ball. The additions of veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Dante Pettis in free agency shouldn’t be overlooked either. In two offseasons, the Bears have gone from weaponless to weapon forward at the pass-catching positions.

The bigger Bear free agency signing was on the offensive line. Chicago added Jake Curhan from the Seahawks. Curhan played in 29 games with nine starts over the past three seasons after making Pete Carroll‘s team as an undrafted free agent out of California.

It’s a good thing, too. Fields was pressured on 26.5 percent of his snaps last season. Only Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Tennessee’s Will Levis were pressured more frequently. Fields took 33 hits, which paled in comparison to the 69 Jared Goff took. Fields was a mobile quarterback, and he had to be last season in Chicago. Williams is capable of evading rushers with the best of them, but the Bears certainly want to level up here.

Here is what NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein had to say about Williams:

“Williams’ play is highlighted by rare escapability paired with the talent to exploit defenses once the play breaks down. He’s not tall, but he is well-built, with an arm to challenge defenses across the field. He can be a high-impact playmaker on the go or an effective pocket passer when he allows himself to trust his eyes on second and third reads. He can improve his accuracy and placement on intermediate and deep throws, but he’s unlikely to be known for pinpoint accuracy. It is admirable that he looks to keep his eyes up and make throws outside the pocket, but he’ll make things easier on himself early in his pro career by becoming a more decisive scrambler to move the sticks and carry on to the next set of downs. Williams is tremendously talented but often bites off too much responsibility and plays off-schedule. He has a good chance to hit new heights with a surrounding cast he trusts, but greater self-discipline and a well-structured offense might be needed to help him become a quarterback who can elevate a franchise to championship contention.”

That’s more or less what we saw from Williams over his two years at USC. There were certainly plays where he could have chosen to live another day but instead forced a bad situation into something worse. There were also plays he turned into big gainers in which he was the only college player capable of doing so. It’s a given the No. 1 pick almost never lands in an ideal situation. This one isn’t so bad for Williams. It’s also interesting the Bears announced plans for a new indoor stadium to hopefully be ready by 2028. Putting a player like Williams on a dry track where the elements can’t slow him down is always a good idea.  Bottom line, we like this fit about as much as we could given the exceptional nature of the pick. It’s certainly a more promising scenario than Bryce Young navigated last season when the Panthers selected him No. 1 overall.