Here is what’s behind Soto’s incredible start
Juan Soto’s career in pinstripes is off to a stellar start, surprising no one.
Here’s a look at where this start ranks for him and beginnings to Yankees careers overall, and how he’s doing it.
One of his best starts
When a player is in his seventh MLB season, the idea of ranking his starts to seasons may sound a bit silly. But not with a player like Soto, whose start to his career has been well-documented as being on a Hall of Fame track. Just look at the company he was in with his career OPS+ entering this year.
Highest OPS+ through age-24 season, min 3000 PA:
Ty Cobb: 176
Mike Trout: 170
Mickey Mantle: 166
Jimmie Foxx: 166
Juan Soto: 157
By almost any metric you choose, Soto is off to his best start since his next-level 2020, when he hit .351 with a .490 on-base percentage and .695 slugging percentage in 47 games. We’ll never know what his final line would’ve looked like had that season not been 60 games, but Soto’s rate stats were eye-popping.
Each element of his .316/.429/.553 slashline is his best in his first 30 games of a season since a .368/.492/.764 in 2020. His seven homers, 63 total bases, 24 RBIs and 60 times reaching base safely are all his second-best in any 30-game start, behind only ‘20 (11 HR, 81 TB, 31 RBI, 65 TOB).
This is the second time he’s reached base safely at least 60 times in his first 30 games. The only players with more such starts before turning 26 since 1900 are Mickey Mantle (four), Lou Gehrig (three) and Jimmie Foxx (three).
Putting recent starts behind him
Another reason it’s worth flagging this stellar start? His last few had been a bit less productive, amidst winds of change over the last few years. Remember, Soto is the first player to make at least three All-Star teams and change teams twice all before turning 26. In other words, a few things have been going on.
Soto’s slashlines in his first 30 games in 2021-23:
2023: .214/.382/.398
2022: .257/.396/.468
2021: .279/.392/.423
Keep in mind, he rebounded for a classic Soto season in each of those years. This year’s starting point is just that much better.
Joining Yankees history
With a player as good as Soto and a franchise as historic as the Yankees, it’s worth putting this 30-game start into perspective.
He was doing historic things from the first series of the season. Soto became the first player in the expansion era (1961) to record a go-ahead RBI in the 7th inning or later in three of his first four games with a team, and the first to do so in three of his four with the Yankees, specifically, since RBI became official in 1920, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
Now 30 games in, Soto has a .981 OPS, fifth-highest in a player’s first 30 games with the Yankees (min. 125 plate appearances). He trails only Roger Maris (1.058), Joe DiMaggio (1.044), Whitey Witt (1.028) and Bob Meusel (.989).
As noted above, Soto has reached base safely 60 times. That’s the third-most in a player’s first 30 games with the Yankees, behind only Witt’s 66 and Bobby Abreu’s 63.
How he’s doing it
Soto has a recipe to his success, one that’s held true throughout his career: being selective with his swings and then making them count. And indeed, this season he has the fifth-lowest swing rate and third-lowest chase rate among qualified hitters.
But when he does swing, he makes hard contact 27.0% of the time, the highest rate among all players with at least 55 batted balls. Hard contact, with a 95-plus mph exit velocity, is an important goal because it leads to good results. So far this season, players are hitting .483 and slugging .926 on hard-hit batted balls. For Soto specifically, it’s .528 and 1.038, respectively.
The other goal? Hit the ball in the air. Soto’s current 41.1% ground-ball rate would be a career low, and is more than 10 percentage points lower than last year.
Soto is hitting .521 and slugging 1.083 on fly balls and line drives, and has always had similar numbers on such batted balls. By hitting fewer grounders, he’s positioning himself for those positive outcomes even more.
The culmination of all of this: he isn’t just hitting the ball in the air more overall, but also when making hard contact. 66.7% of his hard-hit batted balls have been fly balls and line drives. The only season where he had a higher such rate was 2019, 71.4%. In related news, that year was his lowest ground-ball rate for an entire season, at 42.9%.
What’s next
There is plenty of season left, but no question that Soto in the Bronx has been a joy to watch. In case you were curious, there have been nine players to win MVP in their first year after being traded, most recently Christian Yelich in 2018. The only other in the Wild Card Era: 2015 Josh Donaldson
Note: all Statcast stats are entering Monday
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