The Super Bowl teams are chosen and the running quarterback was beaten by the passer who prolongs plays with his feet to use his arm.The gambling coach took one needless risk too many and had it all come back to ruin what had been a 17-point lead.
A Sunday without the Bears playing but with football going on said something about their status and future, like it always does.
Here’s what we’ve learned about the Bears from the Chiefs’ AFC championship and the 49ers’ NFC championship.
1. Defense Puts Bears in NFC North Hunt
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will likely get a head coaching job after the brilliance he showed as a play caller all year for the Lions. Detroit will have a different makeup on offense without him. The second half Sunday showed how good the Detroit defense is.
The Lions lost once to the Bears and won the other game with miracle rally after being dominated 55 1/2 minutes. They found a way to give up 54 points to the Bears in two games and Bears castoff Kindle Vildor was playing a big role for them bouncing throws off his helmet to the 49ers.
The Packers were right there this year but will have disruption with a new defensive coordinator. The Vikings need to settle their quarterback situation and their own defensive talent issues.
Whether the Bears go forward with Justin Fields or rookie Caleb Williams, they do know they have momentum on their side becuase of their defense. They tied for the league lead in interceptions with 22, have a pass rush now and will work to get it even better and they led the NFL in stopping the run.
Their defense will keep them in games in the NFC North and make something like what happened to Detroit this season possible for them in 2024.
It’s going to be a wide-open battle in the NFC North next season.
“Everybody’s going to want a piece of you,” coach Dan Campbell said of the NFC North.
He’s right.
2. QB Mobility Only Helps
Brock Purdy scrambling for 48 yards was huge for the 49ers when they were behind Sunday. Of course Patrick Mahomes runs from time to time and moves around in and out of the pocket. Lamar Jackson scrambles. The two winning teams in the conference finals had mobile quarterbacks and the Bears have one.
However, the two quarterbacks who won were passers first and were looking to throw whenever they did use their legs. Lamar Jackson’s playmaking was exciting but ultimately it’s always easier to stop a quarterback whose tendency is to take off with the ball rather than run to throw, although that trick he pulled where he caught his own throw and then ran was truly a feat worth replicating.
The Bears have a quarterback who runs in Justin Fields and can draft one who runs to throw in Williams. They think Fields is learning to be a QB who runs to throw. Considering what that quality did Sunday for the two winning teams, they better be sure Fields is actually making progress in this manner before they decided not to draft Williams because he has this down already.
3. A Time and Place for Gambling
Matt Eberflus should have learned this on the first drive of the season, when he foolishly went for fourth-and-1 at his 40 against the Packers and it failed, leading to a deficit they never recovered from in a 38-20 loss. The two fourth-down gambles by Dan Campbell were entirely unnecessary. They were gambling for the sake of gambling or for ego and not being realistic about the game situation. A 17-point lead with a field goal the first time would have meant a three-score lead in the second half. Instead, it went straight to a seven-point lead. The second time, they could have tied the game halfway through the fourth quarter. The “analytics” says you can pick up the first down is something numbers guys say. It’s also what losers say.
Winning football games requires actual logic based on situations and people.
Hopefully Campbell’s foolhardy risks reinforced what Eberflus should have learned a few times this season on his own with silly gambles.
4. The Bears Need Pass Catchers
Whoever throws the passes, the Bears need to find targets. They have one tight end and one wide receiver. The 49ers could throw to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and even Kyle Jusczczyk. The Lions had six receivers with 20 yards or more. The Chiefs had a poor receiver group beyond Travis Kelce and Rayshee Rice but when it mattered most even Marquez Valdes-Scantling came down with a key 32-yard completion.
5. The Bears Need a Center
Three of the final four teams had centers who were graded in the top seven at the position in the NFL by Pro Football Focus: Detroit’s Frank Ragnow (No. 1), Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey (No. 4) and Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum (No. 7). 49ers center Jake Brendel was graded 18th. That’s a lot better than Lucas Patrick being graded 32nd or Sam Mustipher struggling last year.
6. The Bears Need Another Back
The running game was huge throughout the playoffs.
Especially if the first pick of the draft is Caleb Williams, the Bears will need another running back and a better running attack. They’re not going to get their rushing yards from planned QB runs without Fields.
Baltimore’s leading rusher Sunday was Jackson with 54 yards and eight carries. The Ravens let Gus Edwards and Justice Hill run six times. They had no other rushing attempts by a running back. They had 23 yards rushing by backs. Even with Jackson as a running threat, a team isn’t going to succeed. They were beaten by a team that had just 2.76 yards a carry by their two running backs but didn’t give up on it and had running backs carry 25 times.
The Lions had the right idea with 27 runs by their backs and 182 yards rushing. It’s how they built their big early lead. But they ran it only eight times in the second half after running 21 times the first half when they established the lead.
The 49ers let Christian McCaffrey carry 20 times and their other backs five times
With Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson under contract already, the Bears could need one other serious running threat. The Lions’ addition of Jahmyr Gibbs should have them thinking about a speed back. Even if Fields is their choice as QB, they’re not going to want the QB on planned runs in Shane Waldron’s new offense to the same degree as Luke Getsy’s offense. And if it’s Williams, why would you draft someone for their arm and turn them into a running back?
7. HITS Works
The emphasis Matt Eberflus has on takeaways through the HITS principle works. The Ravens were minus-3 in turnovers and lost. The 49ers were even. There have been 12 postseason games so far and in only one did the winning team overcome a negative turnover differential. The Chiefs did it against the Bills.
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