Bears linebackers coach Dave Borgonzi has been working under coach Matt Eberflus for six years.He knows the Bears defense well and what has gone on over the last 17 weeks better than anyone except possibly his boss.
Borgonzi also knows what has happened against the Green Bay Packers the last two years and, in particular, this season’s opener.
“We feel like we’re a completely different defense now, and we’re excited to go out there and put it on display,” Borgonzi said.
The Bears close the season Sunday at Green Bay and while everyone is watching Justin Fields to see what he can do with a last game before a decision on his future comes down, the game’s outcome could depend on the other side of the ball.
Fields hasn’t beaten the Packers in five starts but in every game there hasn’t quite been what Bears coaches like referring to as “complementary football.”
The Bears defense has been guilty of collapsing each time behind Fields, and even back into the Mitchell Trubisky era.
Dating back to their first game of 2020, the Packers have averaged 34 points against the Bears. Last year’s Super Bowl teams didn’t come close to averaging 34 points.
The Packers beat the Bears 38-20, 28-19, 27-10, 45-30, 24-14, 35-16 and 41-25.
While they weren’t getting prodigious offensive production, their defense totally vanished.
It’s something to remember when they line up against the Packers Sunday with all eyes on Fields.
Here are the three keys to a Bears upset of the favored Packers.
1. Defend the Red Zone
This is what must be done above all else. Whether the Bears are capable of doing it is the question.
They have improved drastically on defense, but one area they haven’t improved at and have even become worse at is playing defense in the red zone. When they defend the goal line from inside their own 20, they give up touchdowns on 70.73% of drives. That’s the worst percentage in the NFL. The next worst is Cleveland’s 68.4%.
The easiest solution is not letting the Packers inside the 20. It’s a possiblity. Only Cleveland has allowed fewer opposing drives into the red zone (38) than the Bears (41). The trouble is, Green Bay is one of the league’s best teams getting there. The Packers are tied for second in red zone possessions (60).
Once it does get down there, the Bears need to figure out a way to get heat on the passer. It could help. Even with the Sweat Effect from Montez Sweat, they are not getting the pass rush pressure they need inside the 20.
They might want to consider more blitzing from closer to the goal line because they don’t have a single sack this year from inside the red zone.
If they can force Packer field goals at all costs, they’re not losing this game.
2. Pressure
The Bears want Jordan Love feeling the pressure and putting the football at risk. They are the best team in the league at interceptions, so it would be playing into their hands. However, Love has thrown only one interception the last seven games. In games when he does throw one this season, the Packers have a 1-6 record.
So they obviously need the heat on Jordan to get him into uncomfortable situations but this doesn’t all rest with their defensive line or blitzing.
The Bears offense needs to apply heat on Jordan by controlling the ball and scoring when they do it.
The only team in the league with more possession time than the Bears is Cleveland. So they can do it. If Fields is running and the rest of the running game is picking up key yards on first and second down, they can be in situations easier to convert and keep the chains going. They’d leave Love sidelined and feeling real pressure to produce when he is on the field.
Defensively, it isn’t easy for any team facing the Packers to prevent drives because they are the seventh-most effective team on first down. They get it in shorter down an distances and extend drives so they are able to score.
So the goal will be on first down or second down to totally shut down runs, to be in tighter coverage on receivers then and rally quickly to the ball if the short catch is made. The Bears need really short gains on first and second down by Green Bay, leaving difficult third downs to convert.
All of this would add up to pressure for Love, and when he had this earlier in the year he wasn’t as effective. He threw 10 interceptions in his first nine games when this was happening, and has thrown only one since.
There have been two games when the Bears executed a ball-control well against the Packers and they were in both of those games until turnovers reared their ugly heads.
3. Bombs Away
It’s not as easy without Darnell Mooney available but if the pass blocking holds, the way to attack Green Bay’s pass defense for Fields is going up top.
The Packers pass defense overall is ranked 11th, but they have done a terrible job of defending deep passes. Their completion percentages allowed are atrocious no matter where you throw it deep. They gave up 50% completions on the left side deep, which ranks 26th in the league. They gave up 68.4% completions on deep balls over the middle, which is 29th in the league. And they give up 50% deep right, which is 26th in the league. They rank 26th at preventing yardage middle deep and 22nd left side deep, this according to NFLGSIS.com.
Only two teams have intercepted fewer passes than the Packers this season.
Running, then play-action downfield should work if they block it up. Fields’ best passing is his deep passing.
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