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One of the two games on Tuesday night’s slate features the Phoenix Suns (12-8) going on the road to take on the Los Angeles Lakers (12-9).
Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this Western Conference showdown and why.
Tipoff
- When: Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET
- Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- TV: TNT, SportsNet LA, and AZFamily
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends
Phoenix Suns Season Stats:
- Offense: 116.2 PPG – 11th
- Offense Efficiency: 117.7 points per 100 possessions – 8th
- Defense: 113.2 PPG – 16th
- Defense Efficiency: 114.8 points per 100 possessions – 18th
The Suns got off to a slow start, producing just four wins through their first 10 games. And although they suffered a pair of recent losses to the Toronto Raptors (112-105) and the Denver Nuggets (119-111), the Suns are an impressive 8-4 over their last 12 games. This includes a 116-109 win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday night.
Devin Booker – who missed the game against Denver with a sprained ankle — led Phoenix with 34 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists. Kevin Durant contributed 27 points (on 10-for-14 shooting) and handed out five assists.
These two teams have already faced each other twice this season, with the Lakers taking both of those games by five and three points, respectively. The Suns are hoping to change the narrative in the third matchup against their division rivals.
Los Angeles Lakers Stat Sheet:
- Offense: 112.5 PPG – 20th
- Offense Efficiency: 111.0 points per 100 possessions – 25th
- Defense: 113.5 PPG – 18th
- Defense Efficiency: 112.0 points per 100 possessions – 8th
The Lakers opened the season with nine victories in their first 15 games. Since that decent start, though, they have gone back and forth with wins and losses over their previous six contests. In its recent outing, Los Angeles defeated the Houston Rockets 107-97 on Saturday night – a game in which neither team shot better than 45 percent from the field.
Anthony Davis was a force at both ends of the floor. He finished with 27 points, 14 rebounds, and five blocked shots. Austin Reaves contributed 18 points and four rebounds off the bench. LeBron James added 16 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. While this is his 21st year in the league, James has shown that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve with this gorgeous 360 layup.
With a trip to the semifinals in the (newly created in-season tournament) on the line, the Lakers are hoping to continue their dominance against the Suns.
Next up, here is a quick look at some noteworthy betting trends for both ball clubs.
The Picks
The Spread
The Los Angeles Lakers opened as a two-point favorite. That line has moved to 1.5. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the road team to cover is a smart move.
- The Suns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 matchups against the Lakers.
- Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against Los Angeles.
- The Lakers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine December games.
- Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread seven times in their last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents that have a winning record.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns (+1.5)
Over/Under
The projected over/under total opened at 223.5 points. That line has moved to 227.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “over” is a wise choice.
- In the Suns’ last 10 contests, the total has gone OVER eight times.
- The OVER total has prevailed seven times in Phoenix’s last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
- In Phoenix’s last 16 games against Pacific Division teams, the OVER has hit 12 times.
- In the Lakers’ last five outings, the OVER total prevailed four times.
- The OVER total has hit four times in the Lakers’ last five matchups against Phoenix.
Prediction: OVER 227.5 points
Player Prop Bets
My key player for the Suns is Kevin Durant. He currently has -145 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and +114 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points.
In 45 career games against the Lakers, KD is averaging 27.7 points per contest, and he’s averaging 31 points per outing this season. Both trends favorably compare to his projected scoring total for this matchup.
Furthermore, Durant has scored 28-plus points nine times across his last 10 outings. And he is averaging 32.4 points per game during that stretch. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand why going with the “over” for Durant is the obvious choice.
Prediction: Kevin Durant OVER 27.5 points
My key player for the Lakers is Anthony Davis. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 25.5 points.
Davis has played against the Suns 31 times in his career. In those 31 games, he is averaging 24.2 points per outing, which is a smidge below his projected scoring total for this matchup.
On the season, Davis is averaging 22.9 points per game. This represents his second-lowest scoring output over the past five seasons. While Davis has eclipsed the points total six times in his last 10 outings, he is averaging just 22.3 per contest during that stretch. With these trends in mind, going with the “under” for Davis looks like a smart bet.
Prediction: Anthony Davis UNDER 25.5 points
James’s Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers Picks
- The Spread: Phoenix Suns (+1.5)
- Over/Under: OVER 227.5 points
- Player Prop Bet #1: Kevin Durant OVER 27.5 points
- Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Davis UNDER 25.5 points
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