Minutes after his first come-from-behind victory of the season, Bears quarterback Justin Fields wasn’t in the mood to talk about the next five games. Asked where he was in the arc of his season and what he wanted to accomplish the rest of the way, Fields said he wanted to focus on the present.‘‘Where am I? I’m right here, I guess,’’ he said after the Bears’ 12-10 victory Monday against the Vikings. ‘‘I don’t know how to answer that question. But I’m just taking it day by day, just trying to get better each and every day, learn from our mistakes and really just be the best I can be for this team.’’
As for long-term goals, Fields claimed he doesn’t have them.
‘Just going to focus on the task that’s next,’’ he said.
For Fields, that’s using the last five games of the season — one at a time — to prove to his bosses that he’s the Bears’ quarterback of the future. For general manager Ryan Poles, it’s analyzing Fields’ play to see whether he can meet that standard for years to come.
Here’s how we handicap what the Bears will do at quarterback next season:
Draft a quarterback: 60% likely
The Bears’ decision about whether to move on from Fields might be made for them. The Panthers have a 68.7% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft, according to ESPN’s simulations, and they owe that pick to the Bears from the trade that enabled them to draft Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick last spring.If Poles has a chance to take USC quarterback Caleb Williams first overall, he figures to consider it strongly. Williams is considered a better prospect than Young was, though he’ll be picked apart by NFL personnel evaluators for the next five months.
Perhaps Poles will look to trade the pick — think the Young trade, except on steroids — and build around Fields. Trusting Fields, however, would be an act of faith: He still hasn’t proved any semblance of consistency the last two seasons. He ranks 13th in passer rating but 24th in passing yards per game and 22nd in completion percentage this season. He also has won only seven of his 33 NFL starts.
Drafting a quarterback No. 1 overall — be it Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye — comes with cost certainty. He’ll sign a four-year contract worth about $38 million. That’s not too much more than what Fields would cost in the next two years. He’s set to count about $6 million against the Bears’ salary cap in 2024 and, if Poles picks up his fifth-year option by the deadline in May, would make $23.3 million in 2025.Plus, if Poles drafted a quarterback, he could trade Fields for a second-day draft pick. And there’s precedent for the Bears to ask for more: Sam Darnold, entering his fourth season in 2021, was dealt for second-, fourth- and sixth-round picks
Keep Fields, pick up his option: 20%
If the Panthers finish outside the bottom two in the NFL, the Bears’ decision won’t be nearly as simple. To land a top-tier quarterback without a top-two pick, the Bears likely would have to trade up in the draft. While Poles holds the Panthers’ second-round pick in 2025 from the Young trade, he dealt his own second-round pick for defensive end Montez Sweat in October.If the Panthers’ pick fell to No. 3, would the Bears take Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with Fields? Combine Harrison with whomever the Bears take with their own pick, and Poles could argue he was surrounding Fields with better players to put him in position to succeed.As a show of faith, he would pick up Fields’ fifth-year option. All first-round picks have a fully guaranteed club option for their fifth year that has to be picked up — or declined — by May of the preceding season. The Bears can wait until after the draft to make up their mind or let a different team do it, provided they take a college player and trade Fields.
Keep Fields, decline his option: 10%
Is Fields worth $23.3 million in 2025? With five games left in the season, the verdict points toward no.
The Bears could make next season a true walk year for Fields by turning down his fifth-year option in May. That wouldn’t preclude Fields from staying for years to come. If Fields played well in 2024, the Bears still could use the franchise tag on him in 2025 or use the tag as a cudgel to further negotiations on a long-term deal.
The Giants did something similar, declining quarterback Daniel Jones’ $22.4 million fifth-year option before the 2022 season, then — after he had a breakout season — agreeing to terms with him on a four-year extension worth $82 million guaranteed in March.
Extend Fields: 5%
There was a time Fields had a puncher’s chance to become the latest quarterback to land a contract extension worth at least $100 million when he became eligible in January 2024. But he hasn’t played nearly well enough this season to justify that, and it’s fair to wonder whether there’s anything he can do in the last five games to change that.But with $63 million in projected salary-cap space in 2024, the Bears might prefer to pay Fields up front rather than wait for the $23.3 million to kick in during the 2025 season.
Get weird: 5%
Could the Bears have it both ways, drafting a top-two quarterback and keeping Fields in 2024? Poles came from the Chiefs and saw Alex Smith mentor rookie Patrick Mahomes. The Bears, however, flopped when trying to do the same with Andy Dalton and Fields two years ago. Quarterbacks taken in the top two don’t sit on the bench, anyway.What if a veteran star becomes available via trade? After years of struggling to develop a quarterback, adding a fully formed one would be an expensive — but effective — Band-Aid.
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