Ryan Mmaee is taking unwanted second place in the Championship cold list for strikers who have not taken their chances.
If Plymouth Argyle forward Morgan Whittaker has enjoyed a hot streak this season, scoring eight more goals than would be expected given the quality of opportunities, Mmaee is at the other end of the spectrum. The Stoke City summer signing has scored just over five goals fewer than Opta statisticians would have predicted.
Only Leeds United’s Georginio Rutter has a bigger difference between what is expected and his output, scoring eight goals fewer than his expected total although his all-round contribution has still been critical in Leeds’ charge towards the Premier League.
Mmaee, aged 26, has scored three times in the league so far this term. The boffins who analyse his chances think he would have been good for just over eight.
He has come back into the fold in the last couple of weeks following internal disciplinary issues but hasn’t scored since a 1-1 draw at Watford back in late December. His previous strikes came away at Queens Park Rangers in November and at home against Sunderland in October.
He chipped in with an assist for Josh Laurent in last Friday’s win at Hull, which was his first start since January 20. If it is better for strikers to miss chances than not have any chances, Stoke will still hope that he can find a more clinical touch in the six final matches to get the survival bid over the line. The experts say that most players ultimately tend towards their xG figures.
Opta have previously explained: “At the player level, we can use xG to analyse whether a player’s scoring streak (or indeed scoring drought) is representative of the underlying quality of chances they’re taking. Are they scoring frequently because they’re frequently amassing good chances, or are they scoring goals from difficult situations – like a tight angle, or a wonder goal from outside the box – and therefore might not be able to sustain this? Are they getting into good scoring positions but for whatever reason, unable to convert these chances?
“While we can’t solely rely on expected goals to answer these questions (xG under/over performance can be a good indicator for future performance, but we can’t make assumptions from that alone) we can use the metric to help us provide some additional context.”
Stoke have been struggling for goals this season and Mmaee isn’t the only player to be underperforming.
Andre Vidigal (5.66xG/5 reality), Tyrese Campbell (4.89/1), Josh Laurent (3.3/1), Daniel Johnson (3.27) and Bae Junho (3/2) have all been guilty of not showing a clinical enough touch.
Three players have outperformed their xG by more than one goal: Ki-Jana Hoever (1.65/3), Jordan Thompson (0.82/2) and Lewis Baker (0.84/2).
Championship cold list
Georginio Rutter (Leeds) 14.1 xG, 6 goals, -8.1 difference
Ryan Mmaee (Stoke) 8.22 xG, 3 goals, -5.22 difference
Patrick Roberts (Sunderland) 4.12 xG, 0 goals, -4.22 difference
Sinclair Armstrong (QPR) 6.89 xG, 3 goals, -3.89 difference
Matt Godden (Coventry) 9.87 xG, 6 goals, -3.87 difference
Haji Wright (Coventry) 17.71 xG, 14 goals, -3.71 difference
Jack Rudoni (Huddersfield) 8.31 xG, 5 goals, -3.31 difference
Adam Armstrong (Southampton) 23.13 xG, 20 goals, -3.13 difference
Scott Hogan (Birmingham) 4.03 xG, 1 goal, -3.03 difference
Yakou Meite (Cardiff) 4.02 xG, 1 goal, -3.02 difference
Championship hot list
Morgan Whittaker (Plymouth) 11.12 xG, 19 goals, +7.88 difference
Jon Rowe (Norwich) 5.64 xG, 12 goals, +6.36 difference
Sammie Szmodics (Blackburn) 17.9 xG, 23 goals, +5.1 difference
Gabriel Sara (Norwich) 6.58 xG, 11 goals, +4.42 difference
Jack Clarke (Sunderland) 11.07 xG, 15 goals, +3.93 difference
Jordan James (Birmingham) 4.48 xG, 8 goals, +3.52 difference
John Swift (West Brom) 4.61 xG, 8 goals, +3.39 difference
Nathan Broadhead (Ipswich) 9.69 xG, 13 goals, +3.31 difference
Michal Helik (Huddersfield) 5.73 xG, 9 goals, +3.27 difference
Siriki Dembele (Birmingham) 2.78 xG, 6 goals, +3.22 difference
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