With a massive cap hit and two straight seasons where he missed several games due to injuries, San Francisco opted to cut him, and their trash ended up being the Jaguars treasure, as they signed him to a three-year, $51 million deal in free agency. So with pen having been put to paper, let’s take a closer look at this deal and hand out a grade for it.

Grading Arik Armstead’s contract with the Jaguars

Armstead and the 49ers were close to reaching an agreement on a reworked deal that would have lessened his cap hit, but he opted to be released and find a new home for the first time in his career. It’s safe to say that gamble paid off, as he netted a pretty big deal from Jacksonville as they look to shore up their defensive line.

While not a lot went right for the Jaguars in 2023, they have the makings of one of the most feared pass-rushing duos in the league in Josh Allen and Trayvon Walker, as they combined for 27.5 of Jacksonville’s 40 sacks last season. Allen was franchise tagged ahead of free agency, and while extending him to a long-term deal is key, getting him help was also a necessity this offseason.

That’s where Armstead comes into play. With top options such as Jonathan Greenard, Danielle Hunter, and Leonard Williams being a bit too pricey, the Jaguars locked in on Armstead and quietly made a compelling case to bring him to Florida. Now they have a three-headed monster on their line that will look to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks next year.

As noted above, Armstead is a solid three-down player who can line up at defensive end or on the interior at defensive tackle when needed too. Having the ability to be a run stuffer on the interior and a pass rusher on the edge in a span of just a few plays is huge, and for a front seven that relied so heavily on Allen and Walker’s production, Armstead’s presence will be a welcome sight.

Armstead had a decent year in 2023 despite missing five games (27 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 TFL, 13 QB Hits), and he played a big role in the Niners’ run to the Super Bowl. And yet, it’s a bit of a far cry from what he had managed to do in previous seasons, which is a bit of a cause for concern for the Jags as they lock themselves into this deal.

Armstead has missed 13 games over the past two seasons, and he’s going to turn 31 in November, meaning that he could very well be on the downturn of his career. $51 million isn’t an outrageous amount of money considering what Armstead is capable of, but it’s fair to question whether or not he’s going to be able to play up to the level the Jaguars are paying him to play at. The addition of Armstead should open things up for Allen and Walker, and he should have a bigger role after he got phased out of San Francisco’s defensive plan ever so slightly thanks to how loaded their front seven was in 2023. That should lead to an uptick in production if he can stay healthy, but given the time he’s been forced to miss over the past few seasons, that’s an expensive “if” that Jacksonville is paying for.

When looking around the league, it’s noteworthy to see that Bryce Huff, who is only going to be 26 next season and is coming off a ten-sack season, got virtually the same deal (three years, $51.1 million) from the Philadelphia Eagles. Armstead is a better all-around player than Huff, but that is a pretty glaring development that needs to be taken into account.

There’s a decent shot Armstead will be productive for the Jaguars, but whether that remains true by the end of the deal remains to be seen. Injuries and a decrease in productivity are popping up already, which makes shelling out $17 million per year rather expensive. At this price, Jacksonville probably would have been better off pursuing Greenard or Hunter, and it’s tough to look at this deal and not label it an overpay.